RiskCRWD
Revisiting CrowdStrike: The Outage Risk Faded but the Valuation Risk Returned
Customer churn from the July 2024 outage has been negligible, but at 80x earnings and 15x revenue, CrowdStrike is priced for perfection again.
Apr 12, 2026
Free Analysis
Data-driven stock analysis, valuation deep dives, and financial forensics. Every article backed by the numbers.
Capital AllocationJPM
Updating Our JPMorgan Thesis After Q1 Earnings Beat Expectations
Net interest income defied rate-cut models, investment banking fees surged, and normalised earnings now look closer to $52-55 billion than our prior $45-48 billion estimate.
Apr 12, 2026
Market SignalsSNOW
Four Things the Market Is Missing About Snowflake
Net retention has stabilised, AI workloads are inflecting at 300% growth, FCF margins hit 25%, and the CEO transition is behind it. The four biggest bear arguments are weakening.
Apr 12, 2026
Deep DivesMRK
KEYTRUDA's Expanding Reach Just Bought Merck More Time Than the Street Thinks
Merck's 40th KEYTRUDA indication and approaching MK-0616 FDA decision tell a story about the post-patent strategy that consensus models are underestimating.
Apr 12, 2026
Deep DivesAMZN
Amazon's Margin Transformation Is Hiding in Plain Sight
Operating income has grown sixfold since 2022. The market still thinks it is buying a retailer.
Apr 12, 2026
Market SignalsRIVN
EV Demand Is Cratering — Rivian Might Be the Only Startup That Survives It
Rivian just posted positive gross margins for the first time while EV sales fell 11% industry-wide. The Volkswagen JV and R2 platform launch change the survival calculus.
Apr 12, 2026
RiskJNJ
Why the Market Is Overpricing Johnson & Johnson's Defensive Premium
Post-Kenvue JNJ trades at 22x earnings with a looming Stelara patent cliff worth $4-5 billion in annual revenue. The defensive premium is priced for a company that no longer exists.
Apr 12, 2026
Deep DivesNFLX
Netflix: The Margin Machine Tariffs Cannot Touch
While hardware and chip stocks spent April repricing trade war exposure, Netflix had no supply chain to worry about. The real question is whether the margin transformation from 17.8% to 29.5% in three years justifies a 40x multiple.
Apr 11, 2026
Market SignalsDE
The Charts That Show Deere Is Becoming a Tech Company
Precision agriculture revenue has grown from $1.8B to $4.4B in four years while total revenue declined. The market is getting the tech transformation for free.
Apr 11, 2026
Capital AllocationHON
Honeywell's Breakup Would Unlock $40-50 Billion in Hidden Value
Elliott Management is pushing for a split. The sum-of-parts shows $180-200B in value versus a $150B market cap. The GE precedent makes the case.
Apr 11, 2026
Capital AllocationCOP
Revisiting ConocoPhillips After Marathon's Integration Beat
Marathon synergies are running 20% ahead of target. Production crossed 2 million BOE/d. We're raising our target to $145.
Apr 11, 2026
Market SignalsSQ
Cash App's Lending Business Just Crossed a Billion in Originations
Block's payments app is evolving into a full-service bank for 55 million underbanked Americans. The lending ramp is in its first inning.
Apr 11, 2026
Capital AllocationRTX
Five Reasons RTX Is the Most Undervalued Defence Stock
A $200B defence backlog, fading Pratt & Whitney charges, NATO spending tailwinds, and $36-40B in planned capital returns. The normalised PE is just 22-24x.
Apr 11, 2026
Deep DivesMRK
Inside Merck's Race to Replace $25 Billion in Keytruda Revenue
The 2028 patent cliff is the defining event for Merck's next decade. Tulisokibart, ADCs, and subcutaneous Keytruda are the three bets management is making.
Apr 11, 2026
RiskSHOP
Why the Street Is Too Bullish on Shopify's Valuation
At 20x forward revenue with Amazon embedding Buy with Prime into the platform and TikTok Shop growing fast, the consensus bull case ignores mounting competitive threats.
Apr 11, 2026