Data-driven stock analysis, valuation deep dives, and financial forensics. Every article backed by the numbers.
Capex has risen from $6.75 billion in FY22 to $12.36 billion in FY25. Free cash flow has collapsed by three-quarters. The entire valuation debate on Rio Tinto is in the ratio between these two lines.
Intel has rerated from $18 to $49 on foundry optimism. Free cash flow is negative $4.9 billion. The $344 billion market cap is pricing a turnaround that the FY25 financial statements do not confirm.
FY25 free cash flow reached $10.1 billion, operating income doubled, and the streaming segment is finally carrying its own weight. The setup has changed since our last look.
EOG at 9x forward vs Conoco at 12.5x. One is the classic low-cost shale operator. One is the newly-combined scale play. The FY25 numbers decide the winner.
Revenue grew 35%, operating margin stayed negative at 3.2%, and free cash flow of minus $1.9 billion is the fourth negative-FCF year in five. The turnaround is not here yet.
Free cash flow doubled, capex collapsed by 75%, and the Hormuz reopening this week reframes the entire 2026 setup for US independents.
The Solstice spin, the Brady divestment, and a 500 basis point margin recovery plan have not been priced into the $227 share price.
Free cash flow doubled to $7.3 billion, the service backlog keeps building, and the FY25 print is the clearest signal yet that the post-spin business is a different company.
The upfront is $2 billion, the milestones are $5 billion, and the strategic question is whether Lilly can convert GLP-1 cash flow into a second growth engine.
Across three complete value-war cycles, the pattern is the same: the leader loses traffic, concedes price, and trades the margin for footfall. The FY25 data suggests the cycle has started again.
Free cash flow jumped 76% in FY2025 to $7.9 billion. The $11.9 billion German combat systems approval extends the curve into 2029.
Fiscal 2025 revenue crossed $275 billion, membership renewals hit record levels, and the market has spent the week debating whether a 49x forward multiple is defensible. The data points one way.
Revenue crossed $11.6 billion, FCF hit $2.0 billion, and the growth-to-FCF conversion is telling a different story than the $120 share price suggests.
The stock trades at 9.4x forward with a 6.3% dividend yield, a 0.39 beta, and $9.1 billion of free cash flow. The post-COVID reset is already priced in, and then some.
John Ternus takes over a $4 trillion company with $98.8 billion in free cash flow. The succession signals hardware, not Services, and the market has not priced it.