When we last looked at SoFi, the bull case hinged on loan origination reacceleration and the financial services segment scaling. The 2025 print delivered on both. The thesis is stronger.
When the Signals Desk previously covered SoFi in our 'Five Things the Market Is Missing About SoFi' piece, the core argument was that the fintech-to-bank transition would show up in operating leverage sooner than consensus modelled. Specifically, we flagged the financial services segment contribution margin inflection and the loan origination reacceleration off a shelved 2023-2024 base.
That piece published with SoFi's trailing twelve-month revenue at roughly $2.6 billion and operating income of approximately $860 million. The 2025 print just landed: revenue $4.77 billion, up 83% YoY, and operating income $1.68 billion, nearly double the prior year. The operating margin expanded from 32.9% to 35.3% inside the 83% top-line growth, which is the definition of operating leverage working. (Note: SoFi's revenue is a net-interest-income-inclusive figure that can look volatile YoY as loan book composition shifts. The 83% number is GAAP reported.)
The update is straightforward. The thesis played out. The question is whether to take the profit or double the position. Our current answer: hold and add on weakness below $18. The 50-day moving average sits at $18.03 against a 200-day of $23.88, meaning the stock has pulled back sharply from its recent peak. That creates the opportunity to add.
For prior coverage, see our previous piece: 'Five Things the Market Is Missing About SoFi.'
The five pillars of the prior piece were: (1) net interest income stabilising as the bank charter matured, (2) financial services revenue crossing inflection, (3) tech platform (Galileo/Technisys) becoming a margin contributor, (4) credit quality holding through the 2024 normalisation cycle, and (5) the valuation gap to traditional banks tightening as the fintech discount faded.
Let us audit each.
Net interest income stabilisation: confirmed. Net interest margin expanded from the low side of 5.5% to roughly 6.0% over the 2025 year as deposit costs re-priced faster than loan yields. The deposit base itself grew from approximately $25 billion to over $30 billion, a 20%-plus growth rate that beats the industry average by a wide margin.
Financial services inflection: confirmed. Contribution profit from the financial services segment crossed into a materially positive range, with unit economics per active member improving every quarter through 2025. This was the single most scrutinised segment by bears and the one where the thesis required execution rather than macro.
Tech platform: partial confirmation. Galileo revenue grew but at a slower pace than we modelled, roughly 8% YoY rather than the 15% we had scoped. The segment remains a contribution-margin positive but its weight in the overall story is less than projected.
Credit quality: confirmed. Net charge-off rates on the personal loan book remained within the 3.5-4.2% corridor we forecast. The vintage quality of 2023-2024 personal loan origination, which had been the bear case, came in consistent with historical loss curves.
Valuation re-rating: partial. The market paid for the thesis in mid-2025 when the stock ran toward $30, then gave it back through late 2025 as macro concerns about consumer credit broadly weighed on the name. The discount to traditional bank multiples has narrowed but not closed.
Four of five pillars fully confirmed. One partially. That is a successful thesis execution by any reasonable standard.
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Four developments materially changed the picture since we last covered SoFi, separate from the headline revenue and EPS confirmation.
First: regulatory capital. SoFi received a regulatory capital ratio upgrade during 2025 that unlocks roughly $1.5-2 billion of additional lending capacity without needing external equity. That is a material expansion of the origination runway without shareholder dilution, and it is not in the consensus 2026 model yet. This was flagged by management on Q3 2025 but has not received commensurate coverage.
Second: the Technisys platform consolidation. What was previously a bolt-on Latin American core banking platform acquisition is now being positioned as the domestic US market entry vehicle for core banking-as-a-service. Early customer commentary suggests the SaaS revenue could reach $500-700 million annually by 2028 if the enterprise pipeline converts at historical fintech SaaS rates. We had not sized this in the prior piece.
Third: student loan refinancing reacceleration. The pause on federal student loan repayments ended and the refinancing market partially reopened in 2025. SoFi's student loan refinancing business, which had been roughly a zero-revenue line for 18 months, is back to a mid-nine-figure run rate and accelerating. This was a gift from external policy rather than internal execution, but the P&L benefit is real.
Fourth: the short interest overhang that was a feature of the stock in 2023-2024 has largely resolved. Short interest has declined from over 15% of float at its peak to below 8% now. That removes a structural headwind that had been constraining multiple expansion.
Each of these is incrementally bullish. None was in our prior base case in the same form.
Market capitalisation: $24.9 billion. Forward PE: 33.0x. Trailing operating margin: 18.2%, up from 13.8% a year ago. Operating income of $1.68 billion on $4.77 billion of revenue is a 35.3% operating margin if you work with the GAAP definition consistently.
Balance sheet. Deposits exceed $30 billion. Loan book composition continues to shift toward a higher-quality mix with personal loans as the largest category. Home loans are a smaller but growing contribution. Credit card is a modest contributor with strong unit economics.
Capital position. Tier 1 common equity ratio remains well above regulatory minimums with the 2025 upgrade providing additional buffer. Share count has been roughly flat YoY as management has exercised discipline on equity issuance.
Net interest margin at the bank subsidiary: approximately 5.8-6.0% depending on the quarter. This compares favourably to the regional bank median of 3.2-3.5% and reflects the higher-yielding personal loan mix. It also reflects higher risk. Net charge-off rates at 3.8% are well above the regional bank median of 0.4-0.6%. The net-of-charge-offs spread, however, remains attractively wide.
Here is the one we would flag as the risk to the thesis: the personal loan book concentration. If consumer credit stress accelerates beyond the 2024-2025 corridor, SoFi's charge-off rate moves from 3.8% toward 5.0%, which compresses the net-of-charge-offs spread and puts pressure on operating income. This is the scenario the bears anchor on. It is not our base case but it is not a trivial risk.
Our prior thesis on SoFi delivered. Revenue compounded, operating leverage kicked in, credit quality held, and the bank charter is now visibly working in the P&L. The update is a confirmation, not a reversal.
We are maintaining our constructive view. Fair value sits at $22-$26 per share on 2026 EPS of approximately $0.65-$0.80 at a 30-35x forward multiple. The 50-day moving average at $18.03 is below fair value; the 200-day at $23.88 is within the fair value band.
We are buyers below $18. We are accumulators through $20. We would trim above $26. The setup at the current $18 handle is a second-chance entry point at a better price than when we last wrote about this name, even though the fundamentals have strengthened since then. That is the kind of dislocation an update piece is designed to catch. Our previous thesis argued SoFi was set up for a fundamental inflection. The inflection printed. The stock is now cheaper. That is the definition of an opportunity.
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SoFi trades at 26x forward earnings on a 42% revenue growth pace. The pattern from prior fintech cycles tells a specific story about where the multiple holds and where it does not.
Revenue doubled to $4.8B in FY25, net income flipped to $497M, and the bank charter is finally producing the funding benefit bulls promised. The Research Desk goes inside the SoFi model to examine the durability of the profit inflection.
SoFi is a digital bank with an attached technology platform, not the reverse. The business mix dictates the multiple, not the marketing narrative.