Copper, gold and iron ore sit at different points in their cycles, and the three mega-cap miners leading each one offer a useful cross-section of what fair value looks like in industrial commodities today.
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Q1 2026 call disclosed rising grades and steady production. FCX trades at 3.9x sales and 15.0x EV/EBITDA. The Valuation Desk thinks the market is paying for historical margins, not the ones the copper cycle is about to deliver.
Both are priced around fair value. Only one has a clear path to re-rating inside the next eighteen months.
Freeport, Rio Tinto, and BHP are priced as if the copper cycle has peaked. Capex trajectories, supply deficits, and electrification demand say the opposite.