Industrials
World's largest manufacturer of agricultural and construction equipment.
View forensic reportDeere, Caterpillar and Honeywell all sit at the centre of the capex recovery story. Each offers a different exposure. Here is how to rank them.
At 24.8x earnings, Deere looks expensive for a cyclical industrial. A sum-of-parts analysis with the $2.3 billion technology segment valued separately implies $480-520 fair value.
Precision agriculture revenue has grown from $1.8B to $4.4B in four years while total revenue declined. The market is getting the tech transformation for free.
Precision agriculture software at 70%+ margins, a $55B finance arm stabilising earnings, $7.2B in well-timed buybacks, and a permanently reset cost structure — all hidden behind a cyclical revenue decline.
The Frontier Cutter manufacturing partnership is the latest in a reshoring strategy that reduces China exposure to below 15%, while the agricultural equipment cycle approaches its trough.