Healthcare
Biopharmaceutical company focused on immunology, oncology, and aesthetics. Former maker of Humira.
View forensic reportThe consensus frames AbbVie as a post-Humira recovery story with a 14x forward P/E and a 3.2% dividend. The debt stack, the net income trajectory, and the biosimilar trajectory tell a more cautious story.
The trailing P/E of 87x masks a forward P/E of 14.3x. Skyrizi and Rinvoq are on pace to exceed peak Humira revenue by 2027, and the market has not fully priced in the replacement math.
AbbVie's dividend yield of 3.1% and aggressive acquisition strategy tell a story the income statement alone can't — management is betting the Humira cliff was already priced in and is deploying capital for the next growth cycle.
Revenue has recovered past the Humira patent cliff to $61.2 billion, but net income stuck at $4.2 billion exposes the gap between top-line replacement and bottom-line recovery.