Revisiting Our BHP Copper Pivot Thesis: What the Latest Cycle Has Delivered
BHP is up 14% on the year, copper has held above $4.50 per pound, and the capex on the copper portfolio is at decade highs. Time to update the thesis.
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BHP is up 14% on the year, copper has held above $4.50 per pound, and the capex on the copper portfolio is at decade highs. Time to update the thesis.
BHP delivered $9.3 billion of free cash flow in fiscal 2025 against $9.4 billion of capex. The Q3 production report tightened guidance on copper, which strengthens the capital allocation case the Capital Desk laid out earlier.
BHP's $203B market cap rests on a capital-allocation programme that has been inflecting through a multi-year reset. Five charts tell the story the FY2025 results made unmistakable.